AI’s Carbon Emissions Are Rising, But Smarter Policies Can Keep It Green

✦ AI could emit 1.3–1.7 gigatons of CO₂ between 2025 and 2030—comparable to Italy’s five-year emissions;

✦ AI-driven electricity use may reach 1,500 TWh by 2030, rivaling India’s current power consumption;

✦ Despite the rise in emissions, AI offers tools to fight climate change, like energy optimization and environmental monitoring;

✦ The IMF urges sustainable policies: energy-efficient infrastructure, green computing, and model efficiency;

✦ With smart governance, AI can be both a productivity driver and a force for environmental progress.

As the world races to adopt artificial intelligence across industries, a new concern is emerging on the environmental front: its growing carbon footprint. A recent report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), released in conjunction with Earth Day 2025, highlights the potential climate risks posed by large-scale AI operations. Yet, the same report suggests that thoughtful regulation and innovation can keep the AI revolution both productive and sustainable.

AI's Carbon Challenge

According to the IMF, AI-related activities are projected to emit between 1.3 and 1.7 gigatons of CO₂ between 2025 and 2030. To put this into perspective, that’s roughly equivalent to Italy’s total emissions over a five-year span. This estimate includes energy consumption from training and running large AI models, maintaining global data centers, and powering advanced computing infrastructure.

Moreover, the electricity demand from AI could reach 1,500 terawatt-hours by 2030—a figure nearly equal to India’s total power usage today. These numbers reflect the massive computational intensity of generative AI, deep learning models, and large-scale inference systems that support popular services like ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude.

A Dual-Edged Sword

Despite the alarming projections, the IMF maintains an optimistic stance. It emphasizes that the economic and productivity gains enabled by AI could outweigh the social costs of its emissions—if managed correctly. AI, after all, is not just an energy consumer; it is also a powerful tool for climate solutions.

AI can optimize energy grids, reduce waste in manufacturing, and model more effective climate interventions. For example, machine learning is already helping scientists predict extreme weather, track deforestation, and design cleaner energy systems. This dual nature of AI—as both a consumer and a reducer of energy use—places it in a unique position in the global sustainability conversation.

What Needs to Be Done

The report urges governments and industries to act now to shape a sustainable AI future. That includes:

• Enforcing energy-efficient AI infrastructure, such as cooling systems, green data centers, and chip designs;

• Incentivizing renewable-powered cloud computing;

• Encouraging developers to prioritize model efficiency, not just performance;

• Integrating environmental metrics into AI governance frameworks.

Without intervention, AI’s carbon footprint could become one of the defining climate challenges of the decade. But with targeted policies and innovation, it may also become one of the key instruments for climate progress.

A Call for Balanced Progress

So we can say that the rise of AI doesn't have to come at the planet’s expense. The IMF’s warning is a timely reminder that technology, when deployed without foresight, can create unintended consequences. But it’s also a reminder that smart governance can align innovation with sustainability. If we make the right choices now, AI can power not just business and science—but a greener world, too.